A lost letter to Charles I from besieged Oxford, 13 May 1646: the cipher read

Document
London, British Library, Add MS 72438, f. 10 (DECODE record R8624). [Sir Edward Nicholas, Secretary of State,] to King Charles I, Oxford, 13 May 1646. The letter was written in Oxford during the siege and taken by Fairfax's army. The name of the writer is our inference.
New
The first connected reading of the letter: 89 % of the tokens read. The key is rebuilt from the printed cipher of the King with Captain Titus of 1648: the numbers of 1646 are the Titus numbers with a small shift.
Not ours
The cipher text is the transcription of A. Aymeloglu, made in one pass from the DECODE image (aaymeloglu/unsolved-ciphers, folder royalist-1646). He also had about 45 code values from the glosses of Nicholas. We did not see the manuscript, and we have no image.

The key

The cipher has 261 codes in the rebuilt table: numbers for single letters, for common words and syllables, for names, and nulls. The word list is the list of the Titus cipher, which George Hillier printed in 1852 (Narrative of the Attempted Escapes of Charles the First, pp. 153-161). The letter alphabets of the two keys differ; the one of 1646 was solved from context.

WordsShiftExamples: word, number of 1648 → number of 1646
a to h (an, and, be, for ...)+4an 102 → 106, as 104 → 108, at 105 → 109
i to n (I, if, in, it, me, my, not ...)0it 210 → 210, is 211 → 211, in 212 → 212
o to t (of, or, send, so, the, to ...)+1our 284 → 285, so 335 → 336, some? 337 → 338
w (was, where, which, with ...)+8was 397 → 405, will 399 → 407
write, you, numbers, days and months+9one 634 → 643, two 635 → 644, four 637 → 646, five 638 → 647
second list of names and nouns+10desire 479 → 489, letter 532 → 542

The codes of the three worked lines, in order of number. Third row: the basis of the value. E = gloss by Nicholas in the print of Evelyn (iv. 178-179); E2 = our reading of the part of the King's letter of 16 August 1646 that Nicholas left without gloss; T = Titus cipher with the shift, and it fits the context; C = context only; ? = doubtful; U = not read.

1nullC2nullC4nullC7nE10uC11uC17rE18rE19rE20nullC31oE34vC35stopC40iE43tE244tC45tC46aE256sE57sE258sE259sE260mC66yC67eE68eC69eC70eE271pC73lC74eC78wE81dE82dC84hE289cC90cE91cC96stopC110alT112andE117ableT131conT132comT162forE173fromT190heT193himT200havE213ifE216ingE2262mayT270notE281orE282onE2329renderC342safeC355sinceC360toE361theE2364thatT370tionC382usT384not readU391weT405wasT409withE430yourT478conditionT489desireT496stopC504FairfaxC512garrisonC543MajestyC562OxfordC572ParliamentC596receiveC614SirC629not readU

Full table: key1646.tsv (261 codes, each with its basis). The Titus key: titus_key.tsv.

Worked example

We have no image of the manuscript. The numbers below are three lines of A. Aymeloglu's transcription, file royalist-1646/f10_ct.txt of his repository. The rest of his transcription is not copied here. Each box holds one token: the number, its value, and the basis of the value. Words in italics are clear words of the manuscript. The line under a group of boxes gives the word.

Line 3: the summons of Fairfax

360toEto329renderCrender562OxfordCOxford360toEto193himThim162forEfor361theE2the382usT67eEuseclearof ye of ye572ParliamentCParliament496stopC 112andEandclearexpress 216ingE2expressing364thatTthat190heThe262mayTmay200havEhav84hE2282onE2281orE117ableThonorable20nullC 44tC68eC18rE60mC57sE2terms1nullC clearfor for193himT56sE69eC73lC34vC74eChimselve112andEand110alTal409withEclearin ye within ye512garrisonCgarrison213ifEif190heThe?illegible  clearreasonably reasonably46aE289cC90cE70eE271pC45tCaccept1nullC 43tE2t19rEr

to render Oxford to him for the use {of ye} Parliament , and {express}ing that he may have honorable terms {for} himselve and all with{in ye} garrison if he [...] {reasonably} accept . t r(?)

And he [sent] to have Oxford rendered to him for the use of the Parliament, and said that the Governor may have honourable terms for himself and all within the garrison if he accepts in good time.

The key gives hav and al. The reading file writes "have" and "all".

Line 4, first part: the safe conduct

2nullC 81dE40iE17rE69eC90cE370tionC59sE2directions20nullC 405wasTwas2nullC clearThat ye That ye66yCy74eCe489desireT81dEdesiredcleara a342safeCsafe131conT82dC10uC91cC44tCconduct4nullC 162forEfor614SirCSir40iE31oEio1nullC 60mC11uC7nE58sE2282onE2munson4nullC 112andEandclearMr Mr629not readU 360toEto132comTcom360toEto384not readU 409withEwith504FairfaxCFairfax

directions was {That ye} y e (they) desired {a} safe conduct for Sir Io. Munson and {Mr} <629: Warwick> to come to <384> with Fairfax

The direction was that they asked a safe conduct for Sir John Monson and Mr [Warwick] to come to [confer] with Fairfax

The reading file adds the gloss "(they)" and writes "come" for com. The codes 629 and 384 are not read. The reading file gives "Warwick" for 629 as a guess; the printed answer of the governor names "Master Philip Warwick".

Line 6, first part: no word from the King

clearwhat what478conditionTcondition96stopC 162forEfor355sinceCsince430yourTyourcleardepart 11uC19rE70eE2departure35stopC 391weTwe200havEhav270notEnot596receiveC81dEreceivedcleara a78wE281orE81dEword4nullC 173fromTfrom430yourTyour543MajestyCMajesty

{what} condition , for since your {depart}ure , we have not received {a} word from your Majesty

for since your departure we have received not a word from your Majesty

The key gives hav. The reading file writes "have".

Marks of the reading file: {..} = clear words of the manuscript; (?) = doubtful; <n> = code not read; [...] = illegible in the transcription.

How sure

MeasureValue
Tokens in the transcription735, of which 20 are illegible there
Tokens read with no doubt mark652 (89 %)
Tokens read with a doubt mark43
Tokens not read20 (17 codes)
Words that Nicholas glossed in 1646 and that fit the Titus list with the shifts20 of 20; with the Titus values shuffled 20,000 times: 5 at most

Outside check. The printed papers of 11 May 1646. Fairfax's summons says: "honourable termes for your selfe, and all within the Garrison, if you seasonably accept thereof". The governor's answer asks "a safe conduct for Sir Iohn Mounson, & Master Philip Warwick". Lines 3 and 4 above give both. On 2 June 1646 the King wrote to Nicholas that he had received "but one letter from you, wch was of the 5th of May"; this letter begins "Since mine of ye fift of May".

What is not resolved

Reading in words, with an English version: reading_f10.txt. Folder: oxford-1646.